The IMF on Tuesday projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for India in 2021, stronger than that of China, the only major economy to have a positive growth rate last year during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Washington-based global financial institution, in its annual World Economic Outlook ahead of the annual Spring meeting with the World Bank, said the Indian economy is expected to grow by 6.9 per cent in 2022. Notably in 2020, India's economy contracted by a record eight per cent, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said as it projected an impressive 12.5 per cent growth rate for the country in 2021.
China's GDP grew by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, down from 7.9 per cent in the second, confirming the slowdown of the world's second-largest economy which was under pressure from the crisis-hit property sector, curbs on energy and tardy recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The gap between Nifty's price-earnings multiple and economic growth is at a 12-year high
Following are comments from economists at leading financial institutions, banks and rating agencies on the interim Budget:
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Wednesday held wide-ranging talks with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov focusing on the Ukraine conflict, bilateral ties and issues relating to the G20 foreign ministers' meeting.
Amid imminent phasing out of the fiscal stimulus by US Federal Reserve, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on Wednesday called for an "orderly exit" from unconventional monetary policies being pursued by the developed world for the last few years to avoid damaging growth prospects of the developing world.
7 key areas that the Budget must address to re-energise the infrastructure sector, suggests Vinayak Chatterjee.
The economic growth fell to a decade low of 5 per cent in 2012-13 fiscal.
The report on the Economic Freedom of the States of India is the latest in a series of annual surveys on the economic freedom of Indian states, which started in 2004. The latest report takes 2009 as the period under review.
The World Bank has appointed Indermit Gill, an Indian national, chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics at the multilateral development bank. "Indermit Gill brings to this role a combination of leadership, invaluable expertise and practical experience working with country governments on macroeconomic imbalances, growth, poverty, institutions, conflict, and climate change," World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement. His appointment will be effective September 1, 2022.
The slowdown in India is related to a credit squeeze, which is a cyclical problem - not a structural problem: American economist Steve Hanke.
'You cannot have only one product or one market or one customer segment.'
The 'aura of invincibility' around Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been 'shattered' by the Indian voters who gave the Opposition a new lease on life, this is how the international media described the outcome of India's general elections.
'The coronavirus epidemic highlights the need to start thinking more actively about multilateral coordination, including, but not confined to, health emergencies and climate uncertainties,' says Rathin Roy.
Experts say it will now be tough for the Modi government to catch up with the UPA's economic record owing to the shock induced by the currency demonetisation.
Jaishankar said he was confident that Prime Minister Modi and President Putin will meet for an annual summit next year.
India remains an attractive destination for foreign direct investments (FDI) on account of healthy prospects of economic growth and its skilled workforce, according to a survey by Deloitte. A large proportion of international business leaders remain confident in India's short- and long-term prospects and are readying plans to make additional and first-time investments in the country, it said on Tuesday. "The survey, which questioned 1,200 business leaders of multinational corporations in the US, UK, Japan and Singapore, found that India remains an attractive destination for investments, scoring highly for its skilled workforce and prospects for economic growth," the survey - India's FDI Opportunity - said.
In nearly 100 seats, the BJP stands almost no chance of winning. In 200 seats, it is a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress where the BJP has an upper hand. In 243 seats, the BJP is pitted against regional parties and it is not going to be easy. That is why 400 seats may end up as a pipe dream, states Ramesh Menon, author of Modi Demystified: The Making of a Prime Minister.
India's economic growth is likely to reach pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of the 2021-22 fiscal as the GDP contraction in this financial year is expected to be less than 8 per cent, Niti Aayog vice chairman Rajiv Kumar said on Sunday. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also revised its forecast of economic growth for the current fiscal year (2020-21) to (-)7.5 per cent as against its earlier forecast of (-)9.5 per cent.
Indian Institute of Technology Madras (IIT Madras) said on Monday that it had raised the highest-ever corpus of annual funds for the institution, garnering Rs 231 crore from alumni, industry and individual donors for 2022-23 (FY23). Its funding increased 76 per cent year-on-year (YoY) compared to Rs 131 crore in FY22, according to data shared by the institute. The number of donors contributing more than Rs 1 crore increased 64 per cent YoY.
'Such steps would be a barrier and something people do not want.'
The global crisis will impact India, the IEG report said. The flight of foreign capital has created liquidity problems. 'In the medium term, this is expected to pull down industrial output growth which is already in a slowdown phase.' The sharp decline in industrial production growth during April-August together with the decline in the second quarter corporate results indicate that overall industrial growth would be much smaller than last year's growth of nine per cent.
'The real lifting of the economy will happen only if this momentum sustains in the coming months.'
There was no smooth surge in middle class prosperity for foreign businesses to tap into because of the Indian economy was mismanaged, argues Debashis Basu.
All members of the Planning Commission have submitted their resignations to the Prime Minister's Office paying the way for reconstitution of the institution.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide momentum in the equity market this week, analysts said. Markets ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week, helped by a sharp rebound on Friday. Last week, the BSE benchmark jumped 500.65 points or 0.77 per cent and the Nifty gained 169.5 points or 0.87 per cent.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
Indian economy, dubbed the fastest growing major economy in the world, is faced with the single most important pressure point of job creation, says former RBI Governor Raghuram G Ranjan as he makes a strong case for improvement of human capital through skill development. Talking about the book 'Breaking the mould: Reimagining India's economic future', written jointly by him and Rohit Lamba, assistant professor of economics at Pennsylvania State University, Rajan said one of the greatest strength of India is its human capital of 1.4 billion and the question is "how do you make it strong?" The nation needs to create jobs at every level going along the path of development, said Rajan, presently Katherine Dusak Miller Distinguished Service Professor of Finance at Chicago Booth, USA.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram's road show in Singapore highlighted India's strong growth and investment prospects.
Petrol and diesel sales in India jumped in September as economic activity picked up with the nearing festival season and the ending of the monsoon raised the demand, preliminary industry data showed. Petrol sales soared 13.2 per cent to 2.65 million tonnes in September when compared to 2.34 million tonnes of consumption in the same month last year. Sales were 20.7 per cent higher than Covid-marred September 2020 and 23.3 per cent more than pre-pandemic September 2019.
While foreign currency rating was retained at Baa2 -- the second-lowest investment grade score -- Moody's also projected a fiscal deficit of 3.7 per cent of gross domestic product in the year through March 2020, a breach of the government's target of 3.3 per cent.
Stating that India's economic stimulus was not adequate, Banerjee said, the measures did not increase consumption spending of lower income people as the government was not willing to put money in the hands of the low income population.
The Sensex will then rally further and end 2016 at 28,000, according to the median forecast of 50 analysts polled in the past week.
'Das is friendly, but he finally does what he does. The quality of engagement is very good.'
Facing the twin task of fighting the coronavirus pandemic today and building a better tomorrow, the world is experiencing a new Bretton Woods moment, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said
Amid China's economic slowdown, the country's economic challenges may increase manifold and its economy may be hit harder in the wake of the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
'Make in India' could suffer the same fate as did privatisation and the command economy, says Ajit Balakrishnan.
Those hardest hit by the second wave of the pandemic have been blue-collared workers, doctors and healthcare workers, law and order and municipal personnel, individuals eking out daily livelihood, and small businesses. And there should be more measures taken to alleviate their pain, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Monday. The report also indicated that the RBI's growth numbers might have to be revisited as the central bank's real GDP growth projection of 26.2 per cent given in the MPC's resolution of April 7 for the first quarter of 2021-22, were "made before the full fury of the resurgence." Nevertheless, the "resurgence of COVID-19 has dented but not debilitated economic activity in the first half of Q1: 2021-22.
Sustaining anything in the region of 7% growth should be good enough in a troubled and risk-laden world, says T N Ninan.
The government on Monday budgeted Rs 1.75 lakh crore from stake sale in public sector companies and financial institutions, including 2 PSU banks and one general insurance company, in the next fiscal year beginning April 1. The amount is lower than the record Rs 2.10 lakh crore which was budgeted to be raised from CPSE disinvestment in the current fiscal year. However, the COVID-19 pandemic impacted the government's CPSE stake sale programme, and the target has been lowered to Rs 32,000 crore in the Revised Estimates.
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